UP outcome will shape the direction and future of National politics

Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi *

Last week, these columns had featured a pre-poll look at the key Assembly elections to five States–Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur–and a rough sketch of the ground situation there.

Widely believed to be the semi-finals before the 2024 Lok Sabha general elections, the importance of these elections, and especially the big fight in Uttar Pradesh, is much more than can be imagined, as the outcome there has the potential to change the direction and fate of political parties in the general elections to Lok Sabha some two years away.

This is not lost on all the key players in the Indian Political League, which is why they are all going that extra mile to make themselves count. A Mamata Bannerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal and leader of the regional party of Bengal, Trinamool Congress, chose to make her presence felt in Uttar Pradesh fresh after drubbing the mighty BJP in her State and an Owaisi, a leader of another regional minority party from Telangana entered the fray to expand the footprint of his party across the Nation.

Campaigning is at its peak, and UP has already seen two phases of elections in Western Uttar Pradesh that ground reports indicate good performance of Opposition led by Samajwadi Party. The third phase is said to be the Samajwadi Party stronghold, which was captured by the BJP in the previous elections in 2017.

But this time around, SP is drawing a good response from the crowd making it give a tough fight to the ruling BJP. The battle of course would be in the next four phases where the BJP is relatively better placed, but by then, the BJP could be playing catch up. But this does not mean that the BJP is down or out. Only, it is raising its tempo now with its star batsman in Prime Minister Narendra Modi stepping out.

He and other politicians know the importance of Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha and is the largest State in India, both area-wise and population-wise. Already, the Opposition is stepping up the ante, realizing that the BJP has run into problems when it came to Uttar Pradesh and even in neighbouring Uttarakhand, where the Congress is mounting a tough challenge.

While the Congress is in the fray in Punjab, seeking another term but with a new captain–Charanjit Singh Channi–and is said to be within a striking distance of achieving a comfortable majority in Goa, if the ground reports are any indication. In Manipur, the ruling BJP is expected to retain power despite some resistance being put up by the Opposition Congress.

But it is Uttar Pradesh that holds the answers to the direction and the shape the future politics of the Nation take. Already, anticipating and hoping for a weakened BJP, the non-Congress Opposition has begun making moves for floating an anti-BJP front to take on Prime Minister Modi in the general elections to Lok Sabha.

Interestingly, Mamata Banjeree has invited Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu and Telangana, and also Maharashtra, for a meeting in Delhi to discuss the role the Governors were playing in their respective States. This is being seen as an effort to float a front of non-BJP forces as preparations for the 2024 general elections.

Now, all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh, and if the outcome favours the Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav he too would be a key player in the National politics but is widely expected to consolidate his position within Uttar Pradesh and leave the leadership issue of such an Opposition front to the rest. As of now, it is not clear if the Mamata Bannerjee effort would include the Congress as there appears no love lost between the two formations.

Left to herself, Mamata Bannerjee may not like to have to do anything with Congress. But it must be remembered that no serious opposition could be mounted against the BJP without the Congress being a part of an Opposition grouping or a front, either directly or indirectly.

Because even though depleted in strength, having lost a few charismatic and young leaders to the BJP and a few more waiting in the wings, the Congress still is a potent force in the States of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh that together account for some 150 seats in which it takes on the BJP directly.

In Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress had formed the Governments after the last Assembly elections there but lost them after the BJP managed to wean away a few Independents and Congress leaders. But it still has organizational strength and leadership in these States, which can still offer a semblance of a fight to the BJP.

Also significantly, none of the regional political forces that are now contemplating a non-BJP formation have any presence outside their region of influence. Like TMC can hardly win seats outside of West Bengal and K Chandrashekhara Rao led Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is not known beyond the boundaries of Telangana.

It is the Congress, which incidentally is their political rival in their own States, that is opposed to the BJP and has still some political heft left with itself that can add zing to any Opposition grouping.

The trouble with the Congress is that it is, at present, not being invited even as a member of the proposed non-Congress front planned by Mamata Bannerjee much less given a chance to lead it. The Congress, on the other hand, sees itself (somewhat rightly so) that it is a natural leader of the Opposition space as it has a pan-India presence.

Individually, and collectively too, the Opposition leaders know the success formula–get united to face the ruling BJP. Except, given their respective political ambitions and inflated egos, it appears highly unlikely that they would come together, making sacrifices that are so essential if at all they want to take on the BJP.

But, also interestingly, neither Mamata nor KCR or DMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin have said anything about the Congress when talking about an anti-BJP front. For the present, they are not even calling it an anti-BJP front but a forum of leaders from Opposition-ruled States which were allegedly facing stepmotherly treatment and were worried about the role the Governors were playing in their respective States.

The BJP is a formidable election fighting and winning machinery and it takes every election seriously. Its campaign for the 2024 general elections is already on, notwithstanding the ongoing Assembly elections.

For this matter, even Uttar Pradesh which may be appearing to be favouring Samajwadi Party in the first two phases may eventually see a BJP victory albeit with reduced numbers. In the outgoing Assembly, the BJP has 303 seats out of the total 403. The magic number in the State is 202.

So, one has to wait for the evening of March 10 by when the results would be out, and the Nation would know how Uttar Pradesh voted. Either way, this result will have a far-reaching impact on the outcome of the 2024 general elections to Lok Sabha.

If the BJP wins Uttar Pradesh, its chances go up by that much in the next general elections, and if it loses Uttar Pradesh then it would face a tougher challenge next time around.