Re-thinking on the Demand for ST by the Meiteis

Paikhomba Khuman *

A religious ceremony during Mera Chaoren Houba in October 16 2012 :: Pix - Bunti Phurailatpam

Introduction

After getting the feedback from the readers, what I feel is that there is a need to further examine the Demand for ST by the Meiteis in a larger context, particularly at the National Level. My earlier observation was rather limited to the arena of Manipur and my main assertion was the policy of job reservation will not bring any societal welfare, even among the Meiteis. In the present analysis, my attempt is to show that there is no need in fighting a battle in which we are deadly sure that we are in the losing side, and the issue of social welfare is sidelined. Rather, it will be more beneficial for us to make a new demand of similar kind if the majority of the Meiteis feels that they need a rider for socio-politico-economic upliftment.

And, time travel is only a possibility, only at the particulate sub-atomic level and to invent a time-machine that can change past-history is only possible in Science Fictions or Nokphade. However, we may also explore alternative arrangement for the Meiteis, if majority of the hill-people feel that mutual and peaceful co-existence is not possible.

Theoretical Background

In a conventional market, it is not possible for the different types of market to sell the same product. However, the Job Market of Central Government is a classic example of how different types of market can co-exist and sell the same product. Open Category means perfect completion and there is free entry and exit. OBC means Monopolistic competition with few barriers to entry and exit. SC means Oligopoly and Barriers to entry are high, and high interdependence. ST means Monopoly and there is no scope for entry by new player.

An oligopoly is a market form in which a market or industry is dominated by a small number of sellers (oligopolists). With few sellers, each oligopolist is likely to be aware of the actions of the others. The decisions of one firm therefore influence and are influenced by the decisions of other firms. Technically, the term "monopoly" is supposed to refer to the market itself, but it's become common for the single seller in the market to also be referred to as a monopoly (rather than as having a monopoly on a market).

Modelling Responses of the Centre

There is no harm in using our foresight and model the possible responses of the Central Government on our endeavor to entry the Monopoly. It is here the application of game theory can be very useful in shaping our next step. In fact, most of us shall be very curious to know if the Centre will accede to our demand and give the license for entry to the Monopoly.

At present, the Center is just observing the event as the movement has not been intensified till date. If the movement is intensified, it will be very interesting the examine and analyse the possible responses of the Centre. One possible response is the Centre is happy with the demand and gives the permit so that we get due representation in Bureaucracy, Nationalized Banks, Central PSUs, etc. Another possible response is the Centre declines to give the license. Still, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics.

Further, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics but accepts at last. Finally, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics but declines at last. In my observation, although it is very difficult to predict with 100% accuracy the ultimate choice of the Centre, it is Pareto-optimal for the Centre to choose the option- "Delay tactics but Declines at last".

One possible response is the Centre is happy with the demand and gives the permit so that we get due representation in Bureaucracy, Nationalized Banks, Central PSUs, etc: This is totally rule out as we do not have any bargaining power at the Centre at the political level or economic level or bureaucratic level. We have 3 MPs ( 2 Lower House, 1 Upper House) and two are from the hills, and so it is crystal clear. So, there is no need for further elaboration, as it is not possible to enter the Monopoly without a reliable political back-up from the native state.

Another possible response is the Centre declines to give the license: The Centre may ask us why we need a rider to enter the Monopoly despite having a well-defined history, language, culture, etc. The Centre may further add that the source of all evils in Manipur is the absence of proper law and order. Inclusion or exclusion will have no impact, and outrightly rejects the demand. However, because of long overdue radical administrative and political reforms and other geo-political compulsions, the Centre will not reject the claim straight-forward.

Still, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics: I may be wrong but the people of Manipur are generally emotional and impatient. Plus, the Centre has greater command over resources. So, it serves best to the 'Centre to use delay tactics' in its Diplomacy.

Further, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics but accepts at last: As already mentioned above, the Centre has enough resources to play Delay Tactics and the State (Manipur) does not have even the bare political back-up to justify its demand even politically. So, the possibility of 'Centre shall use delay tactics but accepts at last' is very remote even in a theoretical exercise.

Finally, another possible response is the Centre shall use delay tactics but declines at last: As already mentioned above, although it is very difficult to predict with 100% accuracy the ultimate choice of the Centre, it is Pareto-optimal for the Centre to choose the option- "Delay tactics but Declines at last". Politically, we have no bargaining power and our bargaining power even at the State level is confined to the four-corners of the valley and Jiribam. No doubt, we will get some emotional and moral support from the Meiteis in Assam and Tripura. Fortune favours the brave, but to climb a hill one-legged is rather weird.

It is not an exaggeration to assert that the ST market in India is like a Monopoly, thereby implying that for a new player to enter this market is not only tough but impossible. It is better to work hard or skill ourselves for economic upliftment rather than struggling in the cold desert and hoping for rain. This can be further justified by analyzing Table 1.1 (below).

Even among the states of NER, none of the states will openly support our demand for a share in the limited pie available to them. Nagaland and Mizoram will sternly oppose any attempt by Manipur on this delicate issue. If we cannot garner even bare support from among the states of NER, how can we expect the other States/UTs to share their cheese?

Source: Provisional Census,2011

At present, the size of the Central Govt. Job market is 5 million (excluding 3 million pensioners) and the size of the ST market is 60 million (considering only the economically active portion). Assuming 8% of the Central Pool belongs to ST, there are around 4 lakh Central Govt. Employees from the ST. This 0.4 million can be used as a proxy to represent the threshold limit in the Central Pool. And, literacy rate of the ST in India is roughly 47% (2001 Census), thereby implying that 28 millions of ST are eligible to enter the Central Pool. Let's imagine what could be the figure if we use the 2011 Provisional Data. It is very clear that the ST market in India is already an over-saturated one and is beyond its carrying capacity. My assertion is why would they let others to enter their already over-stretched market. That is why, it is logical from the part of the ST to behave like a Monopolist and impose 'Barriers to entry'.

From the above analysis, the Demand of ST by the Meiteis rather becomes redundant when it is sure that the 'Centre shall use delay tactics but declines at last'. This is the basic reason why I suggested that it will be more beneficial for us to make a new demand of similar kind if the majority of the Meiteis really feels that they need a rider for socio-politico-economic upliftment.

Conclusion-How about A Twist in Our Strategy?

Personally, I am against Policy of Job Reservation in any form. Rather the policy of reservation should start from elementary level and end at higher education level, for tigers were not born but have to be reared from cubs. This is the lesson, we need from the East Asian Tigers and NICs of South-East Asia. Nevertheless, if majority of the Meiteis feel they need preferential treatment from the Centre, for whatever reason, why don't they Demand to become an SC or Dalit? The SC constitutes 16 % of the population. In fact, the SC or Dalit Market in India is like an Oligopoly and entry will be comparatively easier than a Monopoly. Another added rider shall be we may convert to Buddhism, and our bond with the East Asian Countries and South-East Asian Countries will also improve.