Political Brinkmanship And Game Plan

By shiva_vms *

Notification for ADC POLL ANSAM calls six day economic blockade, now indefinite April 26:
Ibobi's delhi visit May 3:
Muivah's planned visit..
Large security forces being deployed creating hysteria of Muivah's entry which otherwise would have been impossible due to public outcry against deployment of security forces and IRB in hill districts, thus smooth preparation for poll being succeeded and this raise the image of hitherto highly corrupted, tainted leader in congress arsenal..

What Do Govt Get

1. 68 nominees already elected without contest out of the total of 156 constituencies.
2. ground work for next general election..successful condut of ADC poll. One agenda they got for next election
3. Now Ibobi and congress leader become popular overnight for their stance on territorial integrity that they even defy Home Minister call which in fact is a farce played at center. Now people starts forgetting their mother of all crimes and corruptions.
4. Secretariat strike being crushed under Ibobi made crisis. one big headache crushed.
5. Their failures in all fronts being dumped somewhere, people's attention were diverted from main issues--Bribery charges against govt., employee's strike. Headlines being flooded wtih Muivah's planned visit and people's attention being diverted.
6. Deadline for non-manipuris leaving the state lost in fog..naturally govt knows public sentiment is high in one issue and so one major challenge posed by militants being crushed. both highways being manned tightly. another deadline rendered just a secondary issue.

May 26--first ADC election
June 2--Second phase Manipur Chief Minister Ibobi Singh and NSCN(IM) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah are playing a game of political Brinkmanship over the Greater Nagalim issue with the Congress high command signalling to the state government to keep hands off and let it play out till the June 2 district council elections.

Meitei nationalism running high over the proposed visit of Muivah to his village, Somdel in Tangkhul district of Manipur, the local residents do not seem to mind paying Rs 1,400 for one kg sugar, standing in a queue for three hours to get petrol at Rs 150-200 per litre as the NSCN(IM) cadres block National Highways 53 and 39.

As of now, the Centre is sending foodstuff through National Highway 39 to keep the situation under control. The latest is that while food stock in Imphal Valley is under control, there's a huge shortage in the hill districts. Ibobi Singh has convinced the Congress high command that his government will fall if Muivah is even directly air-lifted to Somdel in a helicopter and returned to Nagaland without addressing a political rally.

He needs the Centre to hold his hand till the district council election process is over on May 23 and June 2. Backed by money power and caring two hoots about the siege of the state by the Naga insurgent group, Ibobi has made his mind known to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress high command that he does not concur with the internal security establishment view that Muivah should be allowed to go to Somdel.

As Muivah has not visited Somdel even once during the past 47 years, a section in the government believes that this will defuse the law and order situation and cool down tempers.

The attitude of Muivah is no different. The NSCN(IM) general secretary and his Tangkhul Naga supporters know that they have overstayed their welcome at Viswema, a predominantly Angami tribal village located 20 km off Kohima. Muivah has made a political point with his supporters by intending to go to Somdel to strengthen his demand for Nagalim, which includes hill districts of Manipur.

Both the principal adversaries and the Centre have little time for the BJP-backed Democratic Alliance Government of Neiphiu Rio, who has been crying for intervention of the UPA government to defuse the crisis.

But one thing is clear that if the siege of Manipur goes on for a longer period of time, it would mean brownie points for Muivah and a bigger headache for the Centre, particularly for Naga interlocutor Raghav Sharan Pandey.

Overall Gains

1. Tainted image of Govt turned into hero overnight
2. Congress grip strengthened in hill district for next election
3. Biggest headache of flushing out non-manipuris crushed.
4. Already 60-70% votes gone to Congress because there is no dearth of emotional fools in our society today. Thats votes Congress will get... kudos to Congress Leadership !