Geo-politics and its probable fallout in Manipur

Hareshwar Goshwami *

Over the past three decades, China has significantly expanded its activities in the Indian Ocean region. The Chinese leadership is actively pursuing capabilities that would allow it to undertake a series of military missions in the region. It raises fears among Indian and American strategists over the growing naval presence with its use of so-called “debt trap diplomacy.”

This policy might provide a meaningful military advantage for China far from its shores. To achieve their objectives, the Chinese basically have two strategic policies: to access the Indian Ocean through Pakistan or to open another less risky route in Myanmar.

But China’s policy to enter the Indian Ocean through Pakistan is not very successful because of the unfriendly terrain of the Gilgit Baltistan region and America’s heavy presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Such being the position, China is looking for an alternative route to infiltrate into the Indian Ocean and has chosen the second option through Myanmar.

Myanmar, being a lawless country with chaos and anarchy for decades and a region mostly ignored by the West, became more suitable from the Chinese point of view. Thus, Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, or KP SEZ, was first announced in 2013 with an estimated cost of 7 billion dollars. The project is called the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan. The CMEC is a 1700 km Y-shaped corridor.

China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC): China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is a number of infrastructure projects supporting connectivity between Myanmar and China. It is an economic corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative. The infrastructure development plan calls for building road and rail transportation from Yunnan Province in China through Muse and Mandalay to the seaport city of Kyaukpyu in Rakhine State.

The transportation route follows gas and oil pipelines built in 2013 and 2017. At the end of the route, a port and Special Economic Zone are planned at Khaukphyu. The largest construction project along the route is the 431-kilometre (268-mile) Muse-Mandalay Railway, a project estimated to cost US$9 billion. The newly built railway would connect to the Chinese railway network at Ruili, Yunnan Province.

The CMEC project includes the construction of 1400 high-speed Kunming-Muse-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu railroads linking the KP SEZ with China. Kyaukphyu is the place where the Sino-Myanmar gas pipelines originate. These cater to China’s energy needs.

CMEC will enable China’s Navy (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to monitor India in the Bay of Bengal and ultimately control the Indian Ocean, according to US Naval Intelligence.However, the democratic government in Myanmar became a hurdle to fulfilling Chinese aspirations. Accordingly, it was reportedly toppled in 2021.

To fulfil its objective of controlling the Indian Ocean, between 2015 and 2022, China leased Hambantota port in Sri Lanka (99 years), Gwadar port in Pakistan (40 years), Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar (50 years), Kuantan port in Malaysia (60 years) and so on.

Furthermore, when Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone (KPSEZ) in Rakhine State is fully developed as the Gateway to South China, INS Varsha, a submarine base close to Visakhapatnam, will also be openly exposed. The development of the zone would provide China’s backdoor entry into the Indian Ocean, and if it is fully operated, it would become an imminent threat to India’s strategic and economic policies.

India’s Counter Move: To counter China’s aggressive policy to control the Indian Ocean, the Indian Government is preparing a gamut (scope), and one of them is SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region). The Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) Initiative is a maritime initiative that prioritizes the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to ensure India’s peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indian Ocean.

Along with this process, India entered an international alliance called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), commonly known as the QUAD. Quad is a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries.

The dialogue was initiated in 2007 by the then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with the support of the then Australian Prime Minister John Howard, the then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the then U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. The dialogue was paralleled by joint military exercises of unprecedented scale, titled Exercise Malabar.

The diplomatic and military arrangement was widely viewed as a response to increased Chinese economic and military power. The QUAD team has created a network of submarine detection systems called Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) from the South China Sea to the Andaman Islands to keep tabs on Chinese activities.

Role of India and China in the Civil War in Myanmar: It is a known fact that the governments of Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand are among those legitimizing the junta by officially recognizing them as the government of Myanmar. All these countries are more inclined towards the geopolitical and economic interests of their own countries.

India and China, being immediate neighbours, have a more complicated policy with Myanmar. Both countries are closely observing the changing trends in Myanmar and simultaneously supporting the military junta as well as the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). In short, both countries have been playing both sides of the game for a long time to achieve their own security and economic objectives in Myanmar.

It is a well-known fact that China has been arming the United State Wa Army (USWA), which leads the Federal Peace Negotiation Committee/Northern Alliance. In fact, the Wa Army has supported the pro-democracy forces in Myanmar. This double standard move by the Chinese government is to counter the western support of Ethnic Armed Organizations along the Burmese-Chinese border.

The fact that the “Operation 1027” (October 27), Three Brotherhood Alliance was carried out in late 2023 near the Chinese Myanmar border is an indicator of a shift in China’s stance. All these shifts in policy are considered to bargain for economic and military gains.

Probable Fallout in Manipur: India is believed to have close association with some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) belonging to Kuki-Chin-Zo militants, a component ally of the People’s Defense Force (PDF), the armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar. The presence of a number of illegal migrants in some districts of Manipur is evident from the accounts of some very responsible persons.

For example, the Governor of Manipur, Anusuiya Uikey, while visiting some relief camps in Manipur on August 1, 2023, stated that the present conflict between Meitei and Kuki in Manipur is due to infiltrators from Myanmar.

A similar statement in this regard has reportedly been pronounced by the Union Home Minister of India, Shri Amit Shah, on August 9, 2023, in Lok Sabha, stating that the main cause of the present conflict is that of illegal migrants from Myanmar. The statements indicate that the illegal migrants could be armed militants/terrorists, as they are termed as the main cause of the violent conflict.

These statements reaffirm an earlier notification dated June 15, 2023, issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar, about the presence of Myanmar nationals in India, including Manipur. This notification is some sort of advisory to its followers.

Lastly, the question is: despite knowing all these, why could the Union Government, which commands one of the most powerful armed forces in the world, not prevent the unauthorized intrusion by foreign nationals?

Is the so-called “buffer zone” created to make a safe haven for foreign terrorists now mixed up with the separatist elements among the Kuki-Chin-Zo communities?

Why is the government of India sacrificing its own people for an imprudent foreign policy?

Why does the state government of Manipur continue to watch all these cruelties meted out to its own people?