For many in the BJP 40 is the number to get !

Free Thinker *

A few days back, Dr Rajkumar Ranjan Singh, Union Minister (MOS) of Foreign Affairs and Minor Education while speaking to the media said, BJP in Manipur will win around 34 seats-subsequently increased to 40.

Most of the BJP leaders are also claiming that they are going to win 40 seats. When I ask them to identify the winning Constituencies, they simply smile. Then I reminded them of the fate of Chalis Chor. So either you go up or come down from 40, just for a lucky number.

I am not very sure about their projected number, but one thing is certain that they are forming the next Government. This time too they may form the Government with the help of Congressmen. Because many of the State BJP leaders are former Congressmen; they still have good rapport. We have seen the best understanding at Moirang this time around - interchanged. Whoever wins will be in the Government.

The beauty of Manipur politics is that we are never controlled by a single Party or influenced by any specific Ideology. Our priority is the State. In the interest of the people, our politicians keep changing parties and ideologies.

In fact Ideology and Party hardly matter while providing real service to mankind or the people. That is why our netas keep hopping from one party to another and from one ideology to another so that they get the right opportunity to serve the people.

If I remember correctly, Exit Poll (result) is banned for the five States till the 7th of March 2022 by the Election Commission. I am also told that the opinion poll result is also restrained. I really don’t know the real legal position of predicting an election result by a political party. But one thing is amply clear that election result predictions by pundits, astrologers, forecasters etc. are not forbidden.

I really don’t understand the difference between opinion poll (result ) and the prediction (result) of a person. Honestly the opinion poll is the combined prediction of some few thousand or hundred voters.

So, it seems there is no difference between the opinion poll and prediction of an individual. The only difference is the sample size. For opinion poll the sample size matter - could be any number; but for prediction by an individual it involves only one voter. In other words the opinion poll is the poll prediction of a group of people. After all that is also prediction.

Exit poll is also a kind of opinion poll–when a voter comes out from the booth after casting his or her vote–discloses the agency/media whom he/she voted for. Looking at the media/agency the voter will never provide the right information; the response in most of the time is bias; it depends on the interviewer or the data collector.

If the voters think that the data is collected by a Government agency they will certainly say that they have voted for the ruling party. If the voters feel that the data is being collected by a media house opposed to the establishment they will say they voted against the ruling party or combination.

Many intending candidates have exited from the fray as they could not manage a ticket from their desired party. However some strong intending candidates are still in the contest, they still believe that they can win in any circumstances; few aspirants are contesting as Independent candidates. If they win , they will play a very crucial role in the formation of next Government.

My prediction is – BJP may win 24 seats this time, Congress may win 16 , NPP may climb up to 7 and surprisingly JD(U) may gain 5 seats, NPF may increase its tally to 5 and others including Independent may win 3.

This prediction is done on my table with the help of Johnny Walker Saab. It may go wrong horribly. This is the latest position and position may change in the days to come depending on the distribution of eatables, drinkables and cash to the masses.

Without the requisite number if you could form the Government and run it successfully for full five years term that is not a mean achievement but a political feat. The role of our honourables should be appreciated for providing a stable Government. This time also people expect a stable Government.

The practicalities or impracticalities of Tenth Schedule of the Constitution has been exhibited here along with the fallibility of the rules of Office of Profit ; and an Honourable Man in a lighter vein told me that people from other legislative Assemblies want to come for actual training and valuable inputs on these issues from us.

Whether it is 40 or 14 they are going to form the Government. Last time with 21 they could easily form the Government.

This time most probably no one will be left on the Opposition bench. All would like to be part of the Government – all are extremely eager to serve the people. Actually we are heading for a solidly durable Government.