Delhi poll debacle: preplanned or mismanaged

Rajiv Roy *

Campaign for Delhi Assembly polls ends on February 05 2015 :: Pix - PTI / TSE

After the debacle of BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) in Delhi elections political pundits are in a mission to ascertain the reason behind the saffron party's poor show at the national capital. There are conjectures that the BJP's poll plan was not managed that well as compared to those in other poll bound states where it won comprehensively of late.

The rise of AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) post 2013 Delhi elections was a matter of serious concern for both BJP and Congress, more so for the latter which could not keep up the alliance with AAP in its first 49-day government last year. Then the saffron party cannot afford to act as invincible setting terms for others if it has its eyes set on poll bound Bihar followed by Uttar Pradesh (UP), a posture that pundits believe the BJP has to shed.

These are the opinions based on poll postmortem as to what would have led the party's downfall in Delhi. But there is also another side to this decimation. It is argued that if hard work, intense campaigning using penetrating digital technology and the rest of it assured BJP's full victory in 2014 general election then the exactly opposite may have been ensured by it to lose the Delhi elections.

It may sound crazy to many as no party fight election to lose but an interesting message doing the rounds recently from unknown sources indicates that the saffron brigade's loss in the national capital was intelligently planned. It is alleged in this message that the BJP wanted Arvind Kejriwal of AAP to win over Kiran Bedi. That it takes an equal hard work, planning and management to lose elections is what this message is all about.

It says that there are enough signs to indicate what we see in Delhi may not be true at all. There were lot of things going on behind closed doors and was not known outside a tiny group in the BJP. BJP is a very well organized outfit with sympathizers in every layer of government, judiciary, media, commerce and industry. And hence it is unlikely, the message says, that the poll debacle was due to poor management. Then, is all this "bad management" part of a deliberate plan to lose Delhi? A lot actually, it points out.

It laid down ten thought provoking reasons, which may not be out-rightly rejected. If the INC (Indian National Congress), a name that is going into oblivion, brought in FDI legislation in the retail sector in the parliament to divert the country's attention from the plethora of scams and corruption that this party had committed for which it found itself in a new soup everyday, then this message says that the same cannot be ruled out in case of BJP – which of course has a cleaner image than the INC in terms of scams and corruption.

Firstly, the decimation of the BJP is reasoned to the induction of three rejects of India Against Corruption (IAC) movement and AAP into its fold — Kiran Bedi projected as BJP's chief ministerial candidate, Shazia Ilmi and Vinod Kumar Binny. As per plans Bedi is BJP's scapegoat to save Modi's image, the message says. It further says that Kejriwal's Delhi win will be projected as a victory of a mass movement; media will eulogize Kejriwal, hail him as a hero and will dissect AAP's campaign for days. This is where BJP's gameplan lies as this will divert attention of the people who are getting restless from Modi's inability to deliver on his election promises. Anna Hazare, who spearheaded the IAC movement, said recently that Prime Minister Modi knows only to make good speeches.

Thirdly, Kejriwal will have no honeymoon period; both media and voters will demand immediate results, at least on corruption, power tariffs, VAT (value added tax), health hotline and WiFi. A hostile government at the Centre will not help him either. This spotlight on Kejriwal will come as a huge relief for Modi. Fourthly, the Sangh Parivar machinery can now unleash its foot soldiers to polarize voters with low-intensity disturbances ahead of the two big battles — Bihar and UP.

The fifth reason in the message reads that the BJP's top brass is aware that if the party plans to win Delhi, the state will remain a headache — partly due to Kejriwal in opposition and partly because of impatient voters who expect immediate results and good governance, something the BJP is unsure of delivering. Proving that losing Delhi isn't such a bad idea! This is something which has its share of ridiculousness since Prime Minister Modi himself in one of the pre-poll campaign said that Delhi will benefit with BJP at the centre and a full majority BJP led government at Delhi. However, what remains a mystery is how AAP won 67 seats out of 70. What may have taken place behind the campaigning scenes?

Sixthly, now BJP can deploy numerous tactics to not let Kejriwal do what he wants thus proving him a failure in Delhi. BJP team knows that many of the promises by Kejriwal are impractical and cannot be fulfilled and this will snatch his 'Hero' image. In Delhi, the four civic bodies, Delhi Police are under the union government and the Governor is an agent of the union government. And this is where the seventy odd promises which Kejriwal had made will be herculean if not anything else, thus delivery will be stake.

This undeliverable performance of Kejriwal will surely break his image throughout the country making him unpopular in other states limiting his scope in next general election. Therefore, it can be argued here that even if the poll debacle was an intelligently planned one by the BJP, it is a calculative move by a well organized party setting its move clear for the future. In this eventuality, the One-Man-Army AAP will not be able to spread itself in other states nationwide because the face (Kejriwal) of the party will be busy managing Delhi for next 5 years. And there is no other mob-attractor face in AAP.

The saffron brigade knows that if they win Delhi, Kejriwal in opposition will make their life hell and will criticize their every action if it's not the best one. Now the media houses have two faces Modi and Kejriwal to criticize. BJP knows this will surely save Modi from being the only target of media and mass criticism.

But the question was Kiran Bedi aware of this internal planning? She was seen crying in one of the campaigns in Delhi, wiping tears of her face. The national media houses questioned whether it was "tears of fear of losing" or "she was overwhelmed by the increasing public support for her". Well now it seems that fear of losing was the main reason for her tears. Then what would one assume about the dejected body language of Prime Minister Modi in few campaigns.

Well going by the reasons, as enshrined above, it was the body language of a plan that was going their way, which was picked erroneously by the national media. The national media took it rather straight informing viewers whether the body language of the Prime Minister just before the poll date indicates BJP staring at defeat. After all can the Prime Minister jump in jubilation.

Another valid reason behind this intelligent planning of the BJP is that it did not ride on its 2014 landslide victory by holding the Delhi election immediately after assuming power at the centre, which it could have done easily. Poll pundits after the Delhi polls opined that it was a blunder on its part for not having reaped the dividends of the general election success. But that they did not do this and waited for over a year until now is a part of its preplan.