Attention of Nation riveted on Uttar Pradesh as ruling BJP battles anti-incumbency

Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi *

Now it has come down to less than a month from today – when new governments will be under formation in five states of Manipur, Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and the big one, Uttar Pradesh. On March 10 counting of votes will be taken up in the morning and by noon, trends may well have firmed up with indications as to the fate of the political parties in the fray.

While it is very important locally for voters of Manipur to be anxious about the new government with opinion polls predicting a tough fight with a slight edge to the ruling BJP. Chances are that the ruling party could romp home, albeit with some huffing and puffing with a resurgent Congress throwing all it has got into the last leg of the campaign.

For the ruling BJP, the good news is coming from Manipur where it is expected to form the government again. But in the rest of the four states, it is locked up in tough battles. Though in Goa, a hung house is likely as per several political analysts – which gives the ruling party a chance to have a serious go at forming the government again.

But when one moves into the politically more important and bigger states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, and even Uttarakhand that was carved out of Uttar Pradesh, the anxiousness of the BJP rises with ground reports not up to its expectations, for the present. How the electoral fortunes change when campaigning picks up, and its star batsman Prime Minister Narendra Modi launches into full campaign mode things may turn in its favour.

But, politically speaking, in Punjab, the BJP is a minor player and is trying its luck with the help of breakaway Congress leader and former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amrinder Singh. Even its erstwhile ally, the Akali Dal, is said not to be in the picture as Aam Aadmi Party has emerged as the big challenger to the Congress regime.

Incidentally, the Congress that is a hopelessly divided house may still cross the finishing line given the lease of life that the Dalit face of the Congress in Chief Minister Chanrajit Singh Channi got, with the BJP and the central government launching a broadside against Punjab state for the security lapse during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the state for campaigning.

Now, once the central government and BJP leaders whipped up the issue, a canny Channi cleverly swung it around and spun it into an insult to Punjab and played on Punjabi pride, something that is a little difficult to counter. Being a minor player in Punjab, the BJP was rest content with watching the fun while the Congress fights it out with AAP with Captain Amrinder Singh waiting to deliver a blow to the party he served for close to four decades and more.

It is for the ruling BJP at the centre, the biggest challenge is in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, both of which are witnessing a little bit of anti-incumbency with reports from the ground suggesting a much tougher than anticipated battle in both the states. In Uttarakhand, it is Congress that is being tipped to have an upper hand, as of now, given the anti-incumbency and the rebel factor hitting the ruling BJP.

However, Uttarakhand is least in the worries of the BJP, which has a demonstrated ability to form governments in closely won elections with very thin margins. In Uttarakhand, the BJP is fighting a hard battle and may even put it across the Congress if all goes well. However, indications from the ground are that Congress may do better than its rivals give it credit for. But all eyes are on the Uttar Pradesh battle, which has already begun with one phase of polling in the Jat dominated Western Uttar Pradesh witnessing an over 60 percent turnout. Polling was higher in rural segments, which is not good news for the ruling BJP with the agitating farmers, who have since suspended their agitation but are working against the BJP in the elections.

The carefully crafted caste groups cobbled up by former BJP president and party’s chief electoral strategist Amit Shah, was torn asunder under an aggressive push to an apparent casteist agenda followed by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

With most sections of the people unhappy, with youth disappointed with unemployment and over and above it, an apparent inhuman attitude of the state government that rained blows on protesting students and youth who were asking for jobs. If the farming community and the students, cutting across party lines appeared unhappy and, in some places, downright angry with the BJP, it is not terribly good news for the ruling party.

Unfortunately for the BJP, the first and second phases of the seven-phased elections, this time has started from Western UP that sent close to 100 MLAs out of 130 odd in the region last time. Why this is a problem for the BJP is that this is the region of Jats, a farming community that was at the forefront of the over one year-long farmers' stir.

More importantly, the Jats have teamed up with a minority community that has made up its mind to try their might to look for an alternative to the BJP. It is the coming together of Jats, minorities, and the other caste groupings that threaten, for the BJP, a formidable caste combination.

What the BJP fears is that if the momentum of these two phases carries on into the next five rounds, the BJP will find it difficult to make good its losses from other regions, which are also witnessing for the first time in many years, a direct contest between the BJP and the challenger Samajwadi Party that has tied up with Rashtriya Lok Dal, a Jat dominated party. With Congress just a bit player, but taking away votes from the BJP’s kitty and Mayawati laying largely dormant, the BJP would find the going a tad tougher.

But on the positive side for the BJP is the image of the Prime Minister as a trustworthy leader and a person who does things. The plethora of welfare schemes and beneficiaries can be the X factor in these polls as well, as the BJP is also going big with wooing and reminding the beneficiaries of the goodies given and more importantly of goodies to come.

But the BJP has some catching up to do, as it is less likely to do very well in the first two phases of elections that take place in Western Uttar Pradesh. Perhaps the BJP had realized this and factored this element in its electoral strategy. The Prime Minister, who left the campaigning to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, has begun to come to the centre stage.

Though at present he has addressed virtual rallies, chances are that he would launch into his forte – of public rallies where he relies on his oratorical skills to drive a powerful and convincing campaign. Would he succeed once again to pull the rabbit out of his hat?

For that one would have to wait till March 10.