Poll predictions
- Hueiyen Lanpao Editorial :: April 16, 2014 -

With the countdown to the 16th Lok Sabha election already begun, the favourite pastime for everyone at the moment seems to be the guessing game over who will emerge winner and who will bite the dust.

With six more major phases of polling still to go, the nine-phase elections to the Lok 16th Lok Sabha election is not even half way through and one has to wait till May 16 to know the results of the elections.

So, it would be foolhardy to say anything definite on the outcome of the election at this stage, especially in view of the fact that the India voters are known more for their flippancy rather than any commitment and their mind could be changed even on their way from home to the polling booth for exercising their Constitutional rights of adult franchise.

But the speculation of the people has already hit the sky and media is abuzz with opinion polls and predictions.

And, one thing that has been consistent in all these opinion polls is the prediction for the victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with steady rise not just in their vote share but also in number of seats to be won.

Encouraged by these predictions, there has also been a corresponding rise in the number of new alliances for the saffron party, which the ruling Congress party could not afford to remain calm and unperturbed, regardless of the oft repeated claim of the party leaders that 'no one takes these poll predictions with any seriousness'.

Although most of the earlier poll opinions and predications had shown BJP and its allies ahead of the ruling Congress party in the electoral race, the saffron party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was always short of the magic number of '272' seats to form the next Government on its own term and condition.

But a latest opinion poll conducted by NDTV in association with Hansa Research in the first week of the current month itself with largest sample size and a two percent margin of error has predicated a clear majority for any pre-poll alliance projecting that NDA would get 275 seats, thus, crossing the magic number of '272' in a House of 543-member.

According to this prediction, BJP would win 226 seats on its own, the highest rally ever for the party and the best for any party since 1991.

On the other hand, the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has been projected to win just 111 seats, with Congress sinking to its lowest ever tally of 92 seats.

While this latest poll prediction must have surely called for jubilation and celebration among the NDA partners, the alarm bell that must have also been sounded within the camp of UPA and more particularly among the Congress leaders, is evident from the stern warning reportedly given by party's high command to the Chief Ministers of the Congress-ruled States to put their acts together for getting the required Lok Sabha seats to remain in power or be prepared to be replaced.

But one thing we can't really fathom here is, when elections to the Indian Parliament are supposed to be based on the performance of the Prime Minister and his Council of Ministers, why the Chief Ministers have to be blamed for the failure of the party in the Lok Sabha elections?

Well, this looks like a sheer desperation already to find a scapegoat.