Myanmar conflict, migration, and its effects in Manipur

Bhavananda Mayengbam *

Burma: 1947-2021

The word 'Bogyoke' (Great General) is well known to all Burmese; Aung San has been one of the most important political figures of Burma (Myanmar) since the country achieved independence from Great Britain. He was the first Burmese to concern himself with the problems of ethnic minorities and worked on national unification, established agreements with leaders of Burma's ethnic groups, and oversaw the drafting of a new Constitution for Burma.

On 19th July 1947, before the independence was formally achieved, Bogyoke was assassinated alongside eight council members of the Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League (AFPFL) during a meeting at the Council's Chamber of Secretariat in Rangoon and he was just 32 years old.

Burma got independence on 4th January 1948, largely because of Aung San's patriotic spirit, determination, and dedication to achieve the goal of freedom for his country. Many Burmese have speculated that had Aung San survived another twenty or thirty years, the country might today enjoy a better standard of living both economically and politically (Naw 2001).

Since its independence, Burma has been largely ruled by the military. National League of Democracy (NLD) led by Aung Sang Su Kyi (daughter of General Aung Sang) briefly ruled the country from 2015 to 2021 till the coup in February 2021.

According to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) press statement in 2021, President Win Myint, State Councillor Aung Sang Su Kyi, and many civilian leaders are arbitrarily detained in prison by the military junta or 'State Administrative Council' (SAC) since the military coup.

Further, the execution of former Parliamentarian Phyo Zeyar Thaw, pro-democracy leader Kyaw Min Yu and two others by the SAC in July 2022 sparked new condemnations from various countries around the world. This was followed by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2669 in December 2022 to immediately release all arbitrarily detained prisoners including President Win Myint and State Councillor Aung Sang Su Kyi (UNHRC 2023).

Military Coup: 2021

In November 2020 elections, Aung Sang Su Kyi's NLD won 396 seats in Myanmar's 498 seat Parliament. Subsequently, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw [the Parliament] made up of lawmakers representing 80 percent of all the elected representatives formed the National Unity Government (NUG) in consultation with a nascent National Unity Consultative Council (UNHCR 2023).

On 1st February 2021, the Myanmar (formerly Burma) military staged a coup and arrested the civilian leaders, and formed a military council in place of the civilian elected Government. Subsequently, the commander-in- chief of the military General Min Aung Hlaing assumed to be the presidency of the military council. The military declared that the coup was carried out due to election fraud by the civilian Government and to desist the civilian Government from taking administrative power (Paing 2023).

General Min Aung Hlaing claims the 2008 constitution Article 418, Sub article (a) as the basis to launch the coup in February 2021 (UNHRC 2023). Millions came to streets to protest against the military's actions and demanded the restoration of power to the elected leaders. The military responded with violent crackdowns on these peaceful protesters, resulting in thousands of civilian deaths, and many thousands were detained (Head 2022).

Aftermath, the resisting movement against the military Government turned into an armed struggle movement and spread the longest civil war in the world that has been continuing in Burma since 1948. This civil war also expanded into other regions of Burma where there have been no armed conflict since World War II and forced over 2 million to leave their homes (ISP Myanmar 2023).

Migration and Effects: Manipur

UNHCR (2023) suggests that the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to military actions in Myanmar since February 2021 till 1st May 2023 is 1,82,7000 and the IDPs in India from the Chin state, which is adjoint to Manipur and Mizoram States of India, alone account for 53,500. Further, it estimated that over 40,150 are in Mizoram while 8250 are in Manipur.

According to the Economics Times (28/03/2023), in March 2023, the Manipur Government made 'shelter home' for 5000 refugees in Chandel, Churachandpur and Tengnoupal districts and they would not allow the refugees to leave the assigned homes.

Further, after the 2021 military crackdown in Myanmar, there are also various reports on the influx from the Chin State, Myanmar, into the North Eastern Indian States, especially in Mizoram and Manipur. As per the Mizoram Government report 35,162 refugees from Myanmar have taken shelter in Mizoram since March 2021.

A point to be noted here is, many believe Mizoram's policy of providing refuge to the displaced group from the Chin State does not threaten the social composition of the State as they belong to the same ethnic group. On the contrary, settling the displaced group from Myanmar without regulatory mechanisms directly impacts the sensitive demographic equation and social composition in Manipur, which has multiple tangible and intangible consequences.

Moreover, these effects are very prominent in this present crisis which started on 3rd May 2023 around 3:40 pm after the mob attacked the people of the Meitei community in the Torbung area of Churachandpur district, Manipur, India, during the 'Tribal Solidarity March' organised by the All-Tribal Students' Union (ATSUM). The march was allegedly against the Manipur High Court's directive to the Government of Manipur to submit its recommendation to the Union Government on the inclusion of the Meitei community in the Schedule Tribe (ST) list.

Many believe the involvement of the Kuki EAOs (ethnic armed organisations) in the attack. The Meitei community angered by the attack on the innocent villagers of Torbung retaliated at around 8.10 pm in New Checkon, Imphal and clashes started with snowball effects.

On the other hand, many also believe cracking down on poppy cultivation, and eviction drive against the illegal migrants from the Chin State of Myanmar by the State Government attracted large-scale protest, especially in Kuki and migrant dominated districts of Manipur. Thereby, anger was simmering amongst the Kuki community much prior to the 3rd May 2023 solidarity march (Das 2023).

Their anger and cause got support with the continued arrival of migrants from the Chin State, who became the settlers in Kuki dominated districts of Manipur after the 2021 coup.

Although each migratory movement has its historical patterns, it is possible to generalize the social dynamics of the migratory process. However, it is necessary to differentiate between 'economically motivated migration' and 'forced migration'. One lesson of the last half century is that it is extremely difficult for countries with democratic rights and strong legal systems to prevent migration into settlement (ed. Blauw and Fang 2009).

The dynamics are different in the case of refugees and asylum seekers. They leave their countries due to persecution, human rights abuse, conflict, and violence that makes their life unsustainable there. Most forced migrants remain in the neighbouring countries of first asylum, which are usually poor and often politically unstable.

Onward migration to other countries which offer better social and economic opportunities is possible only for a small minority. This small minority is mainly those with financial resources, human capital (education), and social networks in destination countries (Zolberg and Benda 2001).

Onward migration is motivated by both the imperative of flight from violence and by the hope for a better life elsewhere. Therefore, attempts by policy-makers to differentiate between the economic and forced migrants are hampered by these 'mixed motivations'. Many migratory movements involve both economic and forced refugees, leading the UNHCR to term it as "mixed flows".

Migration system theory suggests that migratory movements generically arise from the existence of prior links between sending and receiving countries based on colonisation, political influence, trade, investment, or cultural ties. For instance, the migration from Mexico originated in the south-westward expansion of the USA in the nineteenth century and the recruitment of Mexican workers by US employers in the twentieth century (Portes and Rumbaut, 2006).

The migratory process and pattern that followed in Manipur as a receiving State are typical. Family or ethnic linkage often provides the financial, cultural and, social capital which makes migration possible. The migration process started following the 2021 military actions in Myanmar.

Typical migratory chains are started by certain external factors, once a movement is established, the migrants follow "beaten paths" (Stahl 1993) and are helped by the relatives, friends, and ethnic groups already in the area of immigration. Further, networks based on family or common origin help provide shelter, work, assistance in coping with bureaucratic procedures, and support in personal difficulties.

Many believe in this migratory process, few of the migrants in groups enter the Indian state of Manipur with tangible assets which some of them used in armed clashes in Myanmar. ISP Myanmar (2023) reports that after the 2021 coup, the resistance against the SAC in Myanmar soon evolved into an armed movement after the cracked down on the protestor.

Since 1st February 2021 coup through 31st December 2022, there have been approximately 10,000 attacks and armed clashes between SAC forces, anti-SAC forces, Ethnic Resis- tance Organisations (EROs) and other unattributed groups in Myanmar (UN-HRC 2023). Further, these armed clashes act as push factor and triggered the migratory process into Mani- pur, India through Chin and Sagaing region of Myan-mar.

Certain individuals, groups or institutions take the role of mediating between these migrants and political institutions. Such groups can be both helpers and exploiters of migrants. (ed. Blauw and Fang 2009). Similarly, many believe, this relatively 'small group' helped the illegal migrants with land, shelter, work, and other assistance and further exploited by engaging them in drug cultivation, drug business and present conflict in Manipur.

Furthermore, asthis migration process continues, apart from demographic; it contributes tangible and intangible strength to the receiving community and threats to others, especially in the present crises. Thus, an asymmetry is created with tangible and intangible effects which are the factors to prolong and enlarge the present crises.

The Intertwined between these effects and various agendas at multiple levels are: like 'hearts and minds investment' in Myanmar under Act East Policy; China's economic corridor in Myanmar under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the US Burma Act-2023, which support the democratic and development activities in the region; and SAC's actions on pro-democracy factions and EROs. These geo-political agendas along with local agendas invariably make the situation more complex.

Conclusion

The GOI should initiate issue-specific engagements on above; check the 'pilferages' and stop the misuse; check the influx and the role of meso-structure; and also continue talks with the right stakeholders for peace dialogue. These are the immediate factors that need to be sincerely and swiftly addressed for Mani-pur to get out of its complex crisis.

Lastly, for any reconciliation, the first and perhaps the foremost requirement is the change in the mindset of the communities who are residing in Manipur. Every community requires to see Manipur through the prism of 'Common Goods' and 'Shared Value'. The common good belongs to all and everyone has the right to obtain the 'eco-system service' and 'service of nature' provided by the ecosystem. No one should refrain others from obtaining these services by physical demarca- tion of the eco system.

The 'Shared Value' has both tangible values such as land, river, mountains, etc. and intangible values such as bequest and existence; no one should curtail others from enjoying them, rather it should be shared with a sustainable approach.