Post-Manipur crisis, Modi-Shah duo have to redraw their strategies in North East?

Nirendra Dev *

Taken aback and left flabbergasted by Manipur violence, the centre may be happy about new found Meitei-Naga bonhomie. Perhaps it it time now for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-Home Minister Amit Shah duo to redraw their strategy on Nagas .

The 'Manipur crisis' has forced the Modi-Shah duo now to strengthen grip in polity in this region involving three very sensitive and vulnerable communities such as Biren Singh's Meitei community and the Kukis and the Nagas.

Shah has made it clear on the floor of Lok Sabha that Manipur CM Biren Singh will continue at least for sometime as he is "cooperating". The challenge now is the centre should discover 'leaders like Biren Singh' in two other communities -the Nagas and the Kukis.

Outside Manipur, the BJP central leadership and Amit Shah in particular have good working relations with NDPP leader and Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio. Shah's phrase, "the Chief Minister is cooperating"as stated about Biren Singh applies to Rio also.

With some variation, the same yardstick would apply toMizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga as well. Of course, Zoramthanga has elections due later this year and some of his colleagues are making 'anti-Delhi' remarks at times.

While the central BJP understands these electoral compulsions, the Mizoram BJP has earlier this month challenged MNF to quit NEDA if they wished. But it is easier said than done to find such alternative hard-nut leaderships among Nagas and Kukis of Manipur.

Mizos have always been a pragmatic community in the past. The 1986 end of hostilities from both sides was a blessing. Peace heralded in Lushai hills and native people focused on career building, taking up all sorts of ambitious career-oriented life and commerce.Compared to Manipur and Nagaland, the state does not have many complex socio-politica lissues and so the state was peaceful and progressed well.

In 2000, Mizoram even managed peace bonus from the Centre. In more ways than one it was an island of peace! This time around the 'Manipur crisis' has led to bonhomie between Meiteis and Nagas.That Kuki-Zo communities are tribals did not matter. Left to them the Govt of India should be happy. So far, so good !

What next? The solution to Naga peace talks should come at the earliest. The centre has also promised Frontier Nagaland -- a separate administrative unit for Eastern Nagaland.

But given the ground situation, maybe there is a push-back for a while. Maybe Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his trusted Home Minister Shah will have to rethink the 'strategies' on Nagas.The major reason is the peace talks are not progressing owing largely due to twin demands of separate Flag and Naga Constitution by the NSCN-IM.

The government of India has categorically rejected the demands more than once.Reportedly a visibly displeased Shah told a delegation of Nagaland legislators and ministers last September," woh baat nahi karna (Please do not raise these two issues)".The Home Minister also stated, "You ask for anything else, we are there with you".

Among Nagas of Manipur, the Tangkhuls are the dominant tribe. In the past they produced two powerful Tangkhul leaders - Rishang Keishing and Thuingaleng Muivah.While former Manipur Chief Minister Rishang Keishing is already dead, Muivah, the 89-year old NSCN-IM, is still around and is very firm about his organisation's demand vis-a-vis Flag and a separate Naga Constitution.

On 'Naga Independence Day' address, Muivah reiterated his demands on Flag and Constitution. In the civil society is the United Naga Council, an apex body, which on Aug 9 organised multiple rallies and resolved to stick to their traditional bond of trust and friendship with the Meiteis. "This is what we call pragmatism. A leader may emerge among Tangkhul Nagas or 'Nagas of Manipur' in months to come," a source confided.

Importantly, the United Naga Council has asked the state government to immediately start the exercise to update the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in the state. The NRC is a register prepared after the conduct of the Census of 1951 in respect of each village, showing the houses or holdings in a serial order and indicating against each house or holding the number and names of persons staying therein. It has not been updated and there are demands on this from various quarters.

The Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), an influential organisation of the Meiteis,last week wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi demanding the implementation of a NRC with 1951 as the cut off year and asking the authorities to act against "foreign elements" involved in the ongoing violence. This is a significant coincidence and a sort of a historical consensus between Meiteis and Nagas.

This proves 'commitment' towards Indian Nationalism whereas Nagas had an ethnic-basedmovement for last seven decades. "This also reflects contemporary realities on the ground and is hence a game-changer for looking beyond traditional kitchen," the source says.

But very crucial is finding a capable leader and influential among Kukis/Zos in Manipur.The fact that Kuki-Zo communities share kindred bond with Mizos has made things more sensitive. Kukis are also found in other parts of north east including Assam.

According to the book 'Encyclopedia of North East' by Hamlet Bareh, "Ethnic politics was first introduced in Manipur after Independence when the Mizo Union started a movement for the unification of the Mizo inhabited areas". That way, the hands of clock in historical cycle have just come back to the same spot.

Sources say a very important aspect of 'militant history' is again so vital to understand in today's context vis-a-vis challenges thrown by 'Manipur mess'.

Between 1960 to 1967, the Kuki and Naga groups of Manipur hill tribes came into constant touchand were visited by the underground Naga and Kuki leaders. The Kuki disgruntled chiefs, after being dispossessed of their traditional rights, began joining the underground. The hillareas of Manipur then became a corridor for Mizo underground visiting China and to the Nagaunderground trekking to erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.

It is understood the centre is taking a closer view of things. Modi's NSA Ajit Doval isan old northeast hand and especially with regard Mizoram. Hence, a very high level coordination is already happening between NSA, Home Minister Shah and PMO.

Left to him, the Prime Minister is keen to ink a peace pact to end decades old Naga insurgency.But he is not in hurry and is more than keen to see all stakeholders on board.

To achieve something from a long term perspective, one has to show patience.