Suraj's Win
Obviously, it's CM Ibobi's victory
- Hueiyen Lanpao Editorial :: December 24, 2009 -

True to the expectation of a majority of the people of Manipur, Elangbam Suraj, the Indian National Congress (INC) candidate, has won the bye-election to 14-Yaiskul Assembly Constituency, and thus retained the prestigious assembly seat left vacant by the untimely death of his father, E. Kunjeshore in September last.

However, it's also true that it wasn't an easy win for Suraj. He met a formidable rival in the Independent candidate, Hanjabam Jayadeva @ Gandhi, who was backed by two opposition parties, namely MPP and BJP, and one or two left parties.

Indeed, it was a neck-to-neck battle between Suraj and Jayadeva, though, as had been pointed out in this column earlier, Suraj had all the advantages and stood better chances of winning. Among 19,616 (83.48%) votes polled out of 23,498, the total number of voters of Yaiskul A/C, Suraj secured 9,799 votes while Jayadeva secured 8,856.

The difference is neither huge nor narrow–943. But in an election, whether it's a narrow margin or a huge margin maked no difference. It doesn't matter whether it's just one vote or one thousand votes. Winning is all that counts. The winner is happy while the loser is glum.

So now, what does the result demonstrate? Did the bye-election turn out to be a litmus test on the Khwairamband market incident of July 23?

Was it a fight for justice between the people and the present SPF ministry led by Chief Minister Okram Ibobi? Was it a fight to root out corruption and all evils from the society?

Yes, it was a battle of all these put together for the opposition parties which supported the Independent candidate and all those who wished to see Chief Minister Ibobi resigning on moral ground or removed for the infamous Khwairamband market "fake encounter" and all other such encounters.

Leaders of the Opposition parties had declared during the election campaigns that the bye-election to Yaiskul A/C was a holy battle of the people against the Ibobi–led SPF government, and that it would decide whether people of the state were with or against the government. Now how shall we read the victory of the Congress?

From day one when the bye-election was announced by the Election Commission of India, it had been an allout attack from all detractors of Chief Minister Ibobi. In fact, though Suraj was the INC candidate supported by the Chief Minister, all the Congress Ministers and the MLAs, the bye-election was virtually a war against Chief Minister Ibobi personally, waged by the Opposition parties and all those who were with the Apunba Lup and its supporting bodies.

Therefore, it was written on the wall that defeat of the INC candidate would mean defeat of Chief Minister Ibobi. What was not written was the question, what if the Independent candidate they were supporting is defeated?

Considering all the spoken words and unexpressed but understood vibes, Suraj's win in the bye-election may as well be read as Chief Minister Ibobi's victory, and a “Sweet” one at that. This has made Shri Ibobi's position as the undisputed Chief Minister all the more firmly ensconced. No one among the Congress legislators here nor any party leader in Delhi would dare say a word against his leadership or administration, nothing to say of the fallout of the Khwairamband market incident.

So, who will eat humble pie now? If the Independent candidate, Jayadeva had won, cries for Ibobi's blood would have surely filled the air. The result of the bye-election to Yaiskul A/C has clearly shown that the fallout of the Khwairamband market incident including the class closure stir by three student bodies had failed to sway the electorate of Yaiskul A/C into not voting for the INC candidate, as the Opposition parties and others wanted.

Some may feel that people's issues and election are two different things in Manipur, and that people's issues do not come up importantly in elections. This cannot be true.

The assembly elections held after the June uprising of 2001 against the extension of ceasefire between the NSCN-IM and the Centre "without territorial limits" had witnessed total rout of most of the then Ministers and MLAs. The people's and state's issue then was unquestionably consensus and massive.

Therefore, People's mandate usually depends on the kind of issues confronting them. Some other important factors are well-known, and need no further elaboration here.