Disturbing forecast from China : Factors for spread of COVID-19
- The Sangai Express Editorial :: June 04 2020 -

15,000 mark a day by mid-June. This is as per a forecast by China based research group, Global COVID-19 Predict System.

Disturbing prediction it certainly is, but the research group nearly hit the target when its forecast predicted 9,291 new confirmed cases on June 2 in India, which narrowly missed the mark of the 8,909 figure of confirmed cases, as per the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Of the factors underlined by the Chinese research group for the spread of the virus and hence its increase in the number of infection, some points which stand out include population density, quarantine measures and environmental factors.

And India is right up there when it comes to population density, which is 464 compared to China's 153 people per square kilometre and the US where it is 36 people per square kilometre.

In Manipur the population density is relatively healthier at 128 people per square kilometre but remember this is not the lone factor that has been identified as having a direct influence on the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19.

With more and more people coming back and more expected to return in the coming days, the pressure on the different quarantine centres can only be imagined, but pressure is not only the issue which has to be dealt with by the Government and the people.

Already reports have come in of some people sneaking away from the quarantine centres with the Deputy Commissioner of Tamenglong district issuing a notification that people who have come into contact with two inmates who sneaked out from the quarantine centre at Kendriya Vidyalaya should undergo quarantine.

Unconfirmed reports have also come in of some trying to evade having to spend days at quarantine centres on their return from outside the State and these are all worrying reports.

Inmates rising in protest against the quality or hygiene of the food served to them in quarantine centres have also gone viral on the social media and all these should bring to light that not everything is right at all the quarantine centres.

Again the Government would do well to study how and why a young girl who recently recovered from COVID-19 had to take an auto-rickshaw back home at Kamjong district.

Unlikely that Manipur would witness the 15,000 cases per day forecast, but it would do good for all concerned to put in their best efforts to ensure that the State does not see alarming growth.

The forecast of 15,000 per day will necessarily entail community transmission and this is what Manipur should be wary of.

As things stand today, the number of infection has already crossed the three figure mark with the Health Department putting the figure of positive cases at 121.

It is another thing that the recovery rate has improved to 25.49 percent with 26 having recovered meaning that the number of active cases stands at 83.

Recovery is no doubt essential but in the face of there being no medicine for the virus, prevention should be the foremost priority and this is where the Government and the people themselves should roll up their sleeves to ensure that community transmission is kept at bay, that is if it has not started here.