Drastic reduction in various militant-related incidences : No need for AFSPA

Dr Th Suresh Singh *

Sit-in-protest to mark 'September 11 - Black Day' (to mark the occassion of September 11, 1958, when AFSPA came into existence) in Imphal :: Pix - Deepak Oinam

Research study in respect of Militant-related incidences occurred in Manipur during the year 2013.

AFSPA area non-AFSPA area total area %of total remaining near non-AFSPA 1. Various incidences
210 (53%). 48 (12%) 139 (35%) 397 100%

2. capture of militants
a) 111 (48.5%) 38 (16.5%) 80 (35%) 229 57.6%

b) By police - 151, by army-29, by combine-49 (66%) (12.6%) (21.4%)

3. bomb implant
19(37%) 6(12%) 26(51%) 51 12.8%

4. bomb blast
21(40%) 5(10%) 26(50%) 52 13%

5. various gun battle/ attacks :
a) between UGs & Force
6 (100%) 0(0%) 6 1.5%

b) by UGs to central/state force
16 (84%) 3(16%) 19 4.8%

c) between UGs
9 (100%) 0(0%) 9 2.3%

6. operation by army
2(100%) 0(0%) 2 0.5%

7. attack on important places/near army posts
3 (37.5%) 5 (62.5%) 8 2%

8. gun shooting threat/ incident
10(83%) 2 (17%) 12 3.1%

9. self explosion death
1 0 1 0.3%

10. killed by gun shooting
6 0 6 1.5%

11. other kidnapping
a) by villagers
1 0 1 0.3%

b) by unidentified
1 0 1 0.3%

Inference:

1. Incidences – about 47% occur in non-AFSPA and its surrounding areas.

2. Capture of militants :

i) 51.5% occur in non-AFSPA and its surrounding areas.

ii) state force is involved in 86% (66% alone & another 21% combined with central forces). It shows the state force is quite capable and can handle the situation without the Army.

3. Encounter between UGs & Forces –

i) only 6 actual encounters took place during the whole year, all in AFSPA area. 4 took place in border/near border area and 2 in non-border area.

ii) another 19 UG attacks to central/ state forces took place -16 in AFSPA area and 3 in non-AFSPA area.

The two, along with Army operation constitute a meager < 7% of the total incidence. Hence it shows irrelevance of AFSPA and its out of tune in the present situation.

4. Bomb implant & blast- 50% occur in non-AFSPA area.

5. Threat/distortion by bomb implant/ blast/gun shooting threat constitutes 29% of total incidence.

6. Almost all the incidences, i.e. about 93%, are related to Law and Order problems - capture of militants, distortion threats/blasts and inter -related problems. These can be handled competently by the state police as shown by these study findings.

7. The average incidence per day is only 1.08

Comparing the 2 studied years i.e.2012 and 2013, major important findings are :

1. The incidence per day is decreased by almost 50% from 2 in 2012 to 1.08 in 2013.

2. Involvement of state police force is increased from 78% in 2012 to 87% in 2013 i.e. an increase of 9%.

3. Encounter between UGs and forces and, attack by UGs decreased from < 10% in 2012 to < 7% in 2013 of the total incidence.

4. 90-93% of the incidences are related to law and order problems and that the state police can handle this effectively is shown by this study findings.

5. In spite of many incidences, the non-AFSPA area is alive and kicking for the last 9 years clearly shows that AFSPA is not needed at all in Manipur.

6. There is no fake encounter in 2013 and the incidence is decreased drastically by 45% in 2013 since the hearing of this writ at the Hon’ble Apex Court. It clearly indicates that Apex Court’s intervention is a must.