A decade for youth to make India a developed Nation
- Part 2 -

Deepak Aley *

WHY MEDIAN AGE IS IMPORTANT FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Data from the population projection report by a technical committee under the health ministry shows that while the median age of Tamil Nadu will be 40.5 years, it will be 39.6 both in Kerala and Maharashtra, 39.5 in Himachal Pradesh, 38.9 in Punjab and 38.8 in West Bengal.

The relationship between a growing economy and a decreasing fertility rate is a complex one and is influenced by various social, economic, and demographic factors. As economies grow, the cost of living tends to rise. This includes expenses related to housing, education, healthcare, and other essentials. The financial burden of raising children in such an environment can lead couples to have smaller families.

As women gain more access to education and employment opportunities, they often have greater control over family planning decisions. Empowered women may choose to have fewer children or delay childbearing to pursue other goals.

As per the fifth round of National Family Health Survey NFHS conducted by MoHFW during the year 2019-21, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0 children per woman from 5.8 children per woman during 1970.Because of decreasing TFR,the median age is increasing rapidly.

The contribution to the economy by age varies significantly depending on factors such as the individual’s level of education, skills, employment status, and industry. However, we can provide a general overview of how different age groups contribute to the economy:

o 0 to 17 years: where a person completes academics.
o 17 to 22 years: where a person start his career
o 25 to 30 years: where a person starts to earn and contribute to the economy.
o 30 to 35 years: where a person seeks growth in his/her career. And give his best effort.
o 35 to 40 years: where a person is at the peak of his/her career. And take greater risk for a better future.
o 40 to 60 years: where a person focuses more on his family,saving and taking fewer risks. And start planning for his/her retirement.
o 60 and above: where a person wanted to spend his/her life with family. Where contribution to the economy is negligible with some exceptional cases.

Hence, Using the median age of a country’s population, including the median age of India, is important for several reasons when considering the growth of the economy and formulating economic policies.

For example the progress in the Indian tech sector is credited to the 808 million youth, who form 66 per cent of the total population aged below 35 and have grown up tech and digital savvy. With a literacy rate of over 90 per cent among the youth, Internet and social media penetration (over 700 million users) and affordable Internet access, the youth are acquiring new skills and are looking for a purpose and an opportunity to help other people. It encourages the youth to innovate and take risks.

As a result, we are witnessing increased demand and development in various tech sub-sectors such as AI, blockchain, XaaS, platformization, cloud computing, cybersecurity, hyper-scale computing, IoT, machine learning and supply chain.

Tech companies are nowadays open to hiring talented employees with no formal education background in the technology field and hosting events like hackathons, coding competitions and business case competitions. One of the most famous hackathons is Google Code Jam. It boosts the morale of the youth and gives them an opportunity to solve some real-world problems.

India is making strides in the tech industry. According to a NASSCOM report, the IT industry posted 15.5 per cent YoY growth for FY2022. It further said the tech sector revenue surpassed USD 200 billion.

In his 76th Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed the global position of India in the technology sector. He talked about the vital contribution India is making towards the fourth industrial revolution, as its share in the global sourcing market stands at 59 per cent.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND AND ITS IMPORTANCE:

The concept of a demographic dividend refers to a period when a country experiences a significant increase in its working-age population relative to its dependent population (children and elderly). This demographic transition can lead to increased economic growth and development under the right conditions. The “Four Asian Tigers” (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) are often cited as examples of countries that have successfully leveraged demographic dividends to achieve rapid economic growth.

A detailed break-up reveals that even within the younger age group, India is likely to have fewer kids between the ages of 0 and 14 by 2036, and more people in the ‘youth’ category. In the Census 2011, those in the 0-14 years category formed 30.8 per cent of India’s population, meaning nearly one in every three Indians was likely to be younger than 14 years old. Those in the 15-29 year age group accounted for 27.5 per cent of the population.

According to the MoSPI report’s projections, the share for these two categories has fallen to 25.2 per cent and 27.3 per cent, respectively. By 2036, those in the 0-14 age category will only make up 20 per cent of the country’s population, with every one in five persons in India being 14 or younger, and the 15-29 age group will account for 22.7 per cent.

The share of the ‘middle-aged’ population, defined as those between 30 and 59 years old, shows an upward trend, according to the projections in the MoSPI report. It projected that by 2021, this group would make up 37 per cent of India’s population, but by 2036, it is expected to go up to 42 per cent.

The share of ‘senior citizens’ (those over 60) was projected to be 10.1 per cent of the total population in 2021, and then up to 15 per cent by 2036.

It means that our work force will decrease as the year goes on. We should use the present strength of our youth to lead. We must take advantage of the youngsters we have. We need to support them to work in the organised sector, building skilled personnel. We should also stop international migration, or brain drain, which is a great loss to India, but benefits the future of western countries, so that we can use our workforce and demographic dividend for economic growth.

Economists say the next 10 years could become the most important in India’s economic history, because if everything goes according to plan, India will be able to reap the fruits of its favourable demography over the 2030s and 2040s before she loses that edge in the 2050s.

CONCLUSION:

The youth of a nation, such as India, can play a crucial role in contributing to its economic growth and development. India has a significant demographic advantage with a large and youthful population. To help make India the third-largest economy in the world, young people can contribute in various ways.

By actively participating in India’s economic landscape and focusing on education, entrepreneurship, innovation, and responsible citizenship, the youth of India can play a vital role in contributing to the country’s economic growth and helping it achieve its goal of becoming the third-largest economy in the world. Collaboration between Government, industry, and civil society is essential to creating an enabling environment for youth to thrive and make a positive impact on the economy.

Chhodo Kal Ki Baatein, Kal Ki Baat Puraani, Naye Daur Mein Likhenge, Mil Kar Nayi Kahaani, Hum Hindustani.

Concluded ....