A tentative look ahead
- Hueiyen Lanpao Editorial :: January 12, 2012 -

The last date of filing nomination papers for election to the 10th Manipur Legislative Assembly having expired on January 11, the main contestants in each of the 60 constituencies are more or less clear.

The final picture will of course emerge after January 14, the last date set for the withdrawal of candidature, but it is unlikely to alter the scenario drastically, as in previous elections, only the chaff will fall by the wayside and the grains are bound to remain in contention.

Looking at the parties aligned to fight out this election, we find, despite all its infirmities, its inability to come up with any tangible solutions to many issues, failure to provide basic amenities to the people, violation of human rights, including serious charges of fake encounter during its reign, as also the very strident negative propaganda it has been the target of in the run up to this election, Congress still remains the party to watch out for.

But it is also a fact that the party is fighting the ensuing election with a major handicap following the ban imposed by the conglomeration of seven underground groups.

As congress candidate's offices in many of the Assembly constituencies in the valley come under bomb attacks, a dampening effect in the electioneering momentum of the candidates contesting on a Congress ticket is palpable.

But how far this will affect the final outcome is still early in the day to make a reasonable guess.

On the other side of the divide, we have the alliance of the five political parties, the People's Democratic Alliance (PDF), comprising of the Manipur People's Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Communist Party Marxist. Though earlier, the Bharatiya Janata Party had announced its decision to wage a fight alongside the MPP to defeat the Congress in the state, it is not part of the PDF.

Looking at the composition of the PDF, it is clear that the alliance, despite its impressive sounding name do not have much backing it on the ground. The main cog in the wheel, the MPP, is in a highly depleted condition with four of its sitting MLAs deserting its ranks.

While two of them, Ng Bijoy and R K Anand will be contesting from the Congress ticket, Th Shyamkumar and Dr Ibohanbi have decided that their destiny lies with the Trinamool Congress.

The rest of the constituent parties, except the NCP have hardly any visible presence in the state. Faced with such hard facts, it would be extremely optimistic to expect this combine to give any credible fight to the Congress.

In fact, Trinamool Congress, a new entrant to the state's electoral politics, is emerging to be a party to reckon with. The party already has some candidates, who are touted to come out winners, in its kitty.

Though the party is unlikely to record success in very many constituencies, it could well turn out be a deciding factor in any government formation in the 10th Manipur State Legislature Assembly.

Along side the Trinamool Congress, the Manipur State Congress Party, also has in its fold many contestants who are considered likely to turn the tables on the sitting MLAs and if they give a credible performance, the party would also become an important player in the post election scenario.

Though the CPI, is fighting the election on its own, in all probably will again have no ideological or moral compunction in going along with the Congress after the election.

The BJP, on the other hand, despite its high decibel campaign against the Ibobi led government, is least likely to convince the voters with its rhetoric, which leaves challenging the stranglehold of the Congress an uphill task.

If the parties, who are all sound and fury against the Ibobi led government, were really serious about defeating the Congress, they should have forged a united front by putting up common candidates and pooling their resources and vote banks. This failure might well prove their undoing.