A 'responsible China' needs some overseas military bases
- Part 2 -

Puyam Rakesh Singh *

Manipur School of International Studies (MSIS) Discussion Paper No. 3
The Manipur School of International Studies (MSIS) is an online study forum conducting research on various trans-national issues, foreign policies, security threats and cultural exchanges in the neighbourhood of Manipur. The forum was established with the objective of studying the major developments taking place in the world especially in Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, India, China, Myanmar, Laos and Thailand.

For securing maritime and other development interests overseas, China was looking for military base in the Indian Ocean region for years. The Maldives, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Myanmar were mentioned frequently whenever there is discussion on Chinese military base. Interestingly, Seychelles offered China a base for its ships engaged in anti-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia. China surprised all the observers by choosing Djibouti, a strategically located African nation near the Gulf of Aden.

At present, China does not need many bases. Nevertheless, construction of Gwadar deep sea port in Pakistan and approval of the Kyaukpyu deep sea port construction in Myanmar have attracted many China observers. The first base will teach China many new lessons but China will not establish many bases without getting strong support from the ground realities. Energy security, maritime interests and piracy problem are being articulated as major reasons behind the opening of Djibouti base for supplying the operations conducted in the Indian Ocean.

Is there any other region where China needs to strengthen her presence with forward military deployment? China will find it useless and aggressive to have one base in the Pacific Ocean. The 'chequebook diplomacy' towards the small Pacific island nations also means more than 'one China' policy. The diplomatic contest has denied China any strong foothold in the region as shifting diplomatic recognition between the People's Republic of China and Republic of China (Taiwan) continues to haunt Beijing.

China knows that one cannot build castle on shifting sand bars. Therefore, integration of motherland is China's top priority. With strong US forward presence in the first and second island chains, Beijing will find it hard to claim its place in the Pacific Ocean. A defensive strategy and offensive capability to protect China's eastern coastal heartland will push military modernization under the new situation.

China's major concentration of overseas interests is found in Africa and the Asia where other powers cannot totally overshadow China. This is why the military bases will be set up in littoral States of Africa and Asia. After announcing the building of the second aircraft carrier and Djibouti military base, China's next move would be somewhere between the South China Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Will there be another surprise? Kyaukpyu and Dawei ports in Myanmar and the railway project connecting China to Thailand's coastal cities via Laos point to future possibilities. If not Myanmar and Indonesia, the Andaman Coast of Thailand can do wonders for China. The feasibility study for a Kra Isthmus canal has already excited many minds.

One can go on with speculations as far as Chinese moves are concerned in the foreseeable future. But one should not miss China's ability to surprise her observers. Centuries ago, Sun Tzu said: All warfare is based upon deception.

China is the second largest economy in the world and a major chunk of world trade volume flows in and out of China. As a result, maritime interests and overseas interests of the country have increased manifold in the last few decades. These changes and the strategic competition between the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region have influenced its foreign policy and strategic planning.

Officially, the Chinese Dream has incorporated the dream of a militarily strong China. Military modernization and expanding influence of Beijing are discussed on daily basis across the world. It is no more a secret talk in Beijing that China is focused on military modernization to take care of its interests abroad.

Meanwhile, Beijing will avoid any aggressive posture in the open seas as her capabilities are still poor and her military presence will be in coordination with other nations under the UN mandate. The world will not see many Chinese military bases if her presence is not a necessity to be rendered as a contribution to world peace and stability or a must to protect her interests abroad.

The case of the Indian Ocean anti-piracy operation is one such good example. Seen from this perspective, the Somali piracy is a blessing in disguise to make room for Chinese military presence. In the meantime, the Chinese flag will flutter under the shadow of the UN mandate.

Beijing has to protect her interests and act properly as a 'responsible great power' (fu zeren de daguo). Though apprehensive about 'responsibility trap', China cannot confine her vision and action within these four walls of the '24-character strategy'. Today we see China's capabilities, interests and responsibilities working together in the Indian Ocean region. To become a real great power, China will have proper Pacific and Indian Ocean affairs under the new situation.

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Concluded...